European Risk Policy Institute
Strategic Risk Policy for a world of systemic disruption.
ERPI advances strategic risk thinking for leaders and institutions operating across climate pressure, geopolitical fragmentation, technological transformation and systemic interdependence.
The operating environment
A different risk landscape requires a different approach.
Energy, finance, food, communications, infrastructure, security, climate, technology and governance cannot be assessed reliably as isolated domains.
ERPI works at the level where vulnerabilities interact, assumptions fail and decisions acquire consequences across systems.
PEPSP-1 · Public assessment
ERPI Global Disorder Index
Tracking systemic pressure across the international operating environment.
Focus or point to a marker for its approved reading.
View the approved GDI data table
| Assessment | GDI | Release note |
|---|---|---|
| Opening Jan 2025 | 4.5 | Opening of the approved public trendline |
| September 2025 | 7.75 | Approved September public reading |
| End 2025 | 8.6 | Approved end-2025 trajectory |
| 20 March 2026 | 9.1 | Publication-approved March reading |
| 3 April 2026 | 9.2 | Previous publication-approved reading |
| 25 August 2026 | 9.4 | Current publication-approved reading |
PEPSP-1 public synthesis
The public GDI reading now shows a world functioning through prolonged buffer consumption rather than restored normality. Conflict and energy disruption remain able to transmit rapidly into prices, trade, food and institutional capacity; climate and ocean heat are adding forward pressure; and humanitarian and governance systems are operating with thinner reserves. Improvements in displacement, chronic hunger and parts of trade moderate the rise but do not reverse it.
Public-facing synthesis derived from ERPI’s proprietary Global Disorder Index model. This presentation renders an approved release; it does not calculate the index.
Our approach
From recognised risk to strategic vulnerability.
Strategic Risk Policy®
Leadership and policy thinking that begins before risks are fully formed: with vulnerability, dependency, consequence and strategic choice.
3°C World Strategic Risk Policy®
A strategic planning frame for testing whether decisions, infrastructure and institutions remain viable under more severe interacting systemic stress.
What ERPI does
Three institutional capabilities, one strategic purpose.
Research & Policy
Evidence, frameworks and policy analysis focused on systemic vulnerabilities, resilience and emerging strategic conditions.
Strategic Intelligence
Horizon scanning, strategic assessment, early warning and decision support including Chancellor and PerilScope™ Strategic Intelligence.
Training & Executive Development
Training programmes, Master Classes, modular pathways and tailored executive development built around ERPI research and methodology.
Selected research
Evidence before assertion.
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3°C World – Evidence Context
A maintained evidence companion to 3°C World Strategic Risk Policy™, providing authoritative context on climate trajectory and related operating conditions while the framework itself…
Training & Executive Development
Building the capacity to think before the crisis.
ERPI develops structured learning formats for leaders and professionals who need to recognise vulnerabilities, understand interconnected systems and make better decisions under uncertainty. No public training product is currently open for enrolment.
Programme
Structured professional learning
Defined curriculum and outcomes
Master Class
Senior-level strategic session
Concentrated expert-led format
Modular
Configurable learning pathways
Interoperable modules