Planning boundary
Not a fixed-date prediction
The 3°C World Strategic Risk Policy™ framework does not claim that 3°C of global warming will occur on a predetermined date, and it is not a substitute for climate science. ERPI uses the 3°C corridor as a high-consequence strategic planning condition against which policies, infrastructure, institutions and resilience assumptions can be stress-tested.
The framework is evidence-led, but the current climate and policy trajectory is maintained separately in 3°C World – Evidence Context within ERPI Knowledge. This keeps the strategic framework stable while the supporting evidence can be updated as authoritative assessments change.
The strategic question is not whether a single number will arrive on a single date. It is whether institutions whose decisions have long operating lives are prepared for a world moving deeper into climate conditions that interact with other sources of systemic stress.
Systemic frame
Climate is one driver inside a wider strategic environment
The framework treats climate-system change as an increasingly important strategic operating condition, but not as an isolated cause of political, economic or security outcomes. Consequences emerge through interaction with exposure, vulnerability, adaptive capacity, governance, technology, markets and actor decisions.
Physical systems
Climate, water, food, ecosystems, infrastructure and energy.
Strategic systems
Geopolitics, geoeconomics, supply chains, security, finance and access to strategic resources.
Institutional systems
Governance capacity, technology dependence, information integrity, public trust, legitimacy and the ability to adapt while maintaining essential function.
Public application boundary
What the public framework supports
- Policy stress-testing
- Systemic vulnerability analysis
- Resilience planning
- Strategic foresight
Detailed methodologies and restricted analytical procedures remain controlled ERPI material.