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3°C World – Evidence Context

A maintained evidence companion to 3°C World Strategic Risk Policy™, providing authoritative context on climate trajectory and related operating conditions while the framework itself remains stable.

Governance status
Published
Evidence cut-off
2026-08-21
Language
en

Evidence cut-off: 21 August 2026

Purpose

This public evidence companion supports the 3°C World planning frame with time-sensitive authoritative evidence. It is maintained separately so that the evidence can be updated without altering the conceptual definition of the underlying ERPI framework.

Current evidence context

  • UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025: current policies project approximately 2.8°C of warming over this century; full implementation of current Nationally Determined Contributions projects approximately 2.3–2.5°C.
  • WMO, State of the Global Climate 2025: 2025 was the second- or third-warmest year on record, at about 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 average; ocean heat content reached a record high in the 66-year observational record.

Interpretation boundary

Observed climate evidence, policy projections and ERPI strategic interpretation are distinct. ERPI uses the 3°C corridor as a high-consequence planning condition, not as a fixed-date prediction or a substitute for climate science. Detailed ERPI methodology remains controlled institutional material.

Sources